a blog by Brian
Week Three, its going down like a nice bottle of red wine.
***This segment consists of three picks each week, each pick will be for an event happening at the tail end of the week and they will also be from three different sports. I will picking against real Vegas betting lines, lines provided by www.vegasinsider.com. MMA lines vary, depending on the event.
I'm starting small, somewhere down the line if this segment works out, we can expand and do more engaging shit. For now, here are the picks***
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 EVEN
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 EVEN
Sunday October 22nd, 2017. Kickoff at 4:05
For the NFL this week there were only a few lines which I considered to play. Even this line is a bit risky, but considering its Even (no bookie fee) I had to play it.
The Rams have been a surprise team this season. Boasting the youngest head coach in the league, a sophomore season for Jared Goff and an improved secondary the Rams look like a good young roster. However, they will host the revival Cardinals.
Almost two weeks removed from acquiring Adrian Peterson, this will be the disciplinarians second game in red. In his first, Peterson ran for 134 yards and two TDs. I thought AP was done, but hopefully he will continue to prove me wrong.
The Rams have a good pass defense, but they are vulnerable in the run game. Wk 2 vs. Washington: 226, Wk 4 @ Dallas: 186, Wk 6 @ Jacksonville: 169. 150+ rushing yards allowed in three of six is bad.
The Cardinals at +3.5 EV, with an AP determined to prove me wrong, the birds should win this game.
SUNY Buffalo +3 -5
Miami (Ohio) -3 -5
Saturday October 21st, 2017. Kickoff at 12:05
When it comes to college football, the best lines I found this week were put on some fairly obscure games.
It's pretty crazy that these schools still fund an entire division one football program. They are historically bad, the last time Miami (Ohio) was good for an extended stretch of seasons was, 1968-1977. Throw in a 3-8 season, and five of 7-3. Not as terrible as I originally thought. SUNY Buffalo though, has never been good. There are essentially two seasons in the history of SUNY Buffalo football that could be considered successful, 7-3 in 1968 and 8-5 in 2013. Maybe toss 8-6 during the 2008 season in there, if I am being nice.
Anyway, SUNY Buffalo has a fairly good defense. They're ranked 59th out of 130 CFB teams by sports-reference.com. They also have a efficient offense, seven turnovers to twenty five touchdowns. Their biggest problem is rush defense, they have allowed an astounding 1,600+ rushing yards through seven games. That will be the deciding factor in the game. Buffalo's ability to defend the run.
I have confidence in the Buffalo defense, solely because the school is named Miami and its in Ohio. Plus they lost to Kent State, which has been perennial loser for 5 years. Kent State is 130th out of 130 CFB teams in points per game.
Roll SUNY Buffalo.
Nasrat Haqparast +285
Marcin Held -405
Saturday October 21st, 2017. Prelims at 3 pm EST
This Prelim headlining bout features a former Bellator Lightweight champion, Marcin Held, and Afghani powerhouse prospect Nasrat Haqparast. Both young guys, Haqparast is younger than me at the age of 22, while Held is a few years older at 25.
Now, if you are paying attention or just simply do not suffer from my parents worried too much about my future when I was 8 so they got me adderall prescription. You noticed the graphic above states a different spread than what I posted above. The graphic shows the current best line for this fight. I'm fairly sure it is the best line at any given moment, not for when I posted this.
Of course, this was the best line on the card. There were a few other big underdogs, but none with a good enough match up. I don't really want to talk at length about either of these guys because I am not a MMA analyst or journalist. I don't think I know enough to comment on Haqparasts skills, when he is fighting outside of the best accumulation of Mixed Martial Arts talent in the world. It is much easier to gauge skill with fighters in the UFC than outside. I have seen the majority of Haqparast's nine fights since most of them are on youtube, and I've watched Held since he was in Bellator.
Held's strongest part of his game is his grappling, he doesn't have punching power, or the footwork on his feet to stand and trade with advanced strikers or guys with serious power (Yet to see him fight a guy with serious lightweight power, Diego Sanchez doesn't count because while that dude does have power, he also has taken more damage than a WWII tank). I've seen Held get rocked by Sanchez at least twice in his UFC debut, and I've also seen him fight with his hands down as if he couldn't get rocked. A couple fights into his UFC career and you can already tell he has started to adapt to the talent level, as his hands start to creep up when he's in striking range.
I really don't have any faith in Marcin Held standing. Which is why I am picking Haqparast.
Just watch this dude.
Haqparast hits with real power. I've also seen him time some beautiful double legs, once he gets on top, he overpowers basically everyone he's fought. He's finished a lot of fights from top position and has a real good control game.
The danger in this fight is Helds takedowns. Held also has very good timing with his level changes. I don't know anything about Haqparasts submission defense, or his bottom game. He hasn't shown it in any of the fights I watched. I also wonder how Held would hold up on the bottom, if Haqparast took him down. Against Diego Sanchez, Held almost locked up a couple deep leg locks. Sanchez was able to escape due to his grappling expertise, his fight experience and fight IQ.
What makes this more interesting, is Helds bottom game. Former badass UFC commentator Brian Stann brought up how Marcin Held has been controlled while on his back a lot in his career. Stann made the comment in the first round of the Diego Sanchez fight, and a round or so later, it all happened right in front of our eyes. Held was going for submissions while on the bottom, eventually though, Held was no match for Sanchez's top control.
Taking Haqparast, the +285, and a lot of money. If I had to be specific, I'd say Haqparast gets Marcin Held out of the Octagon in the first round by TKO.
Quickly, DO NOT BET ON MICHAEL BISPING v. GEORGE ST. PIERRE. The line is not Bisping +1115, GSP -135. Vegasinsider.com for some reason posted that line despite it being no where close to this on any other betting website. I do apologize that I was duped, but if you do see a line, in the future, along those terms please hit us up so we can all make some mu mu lawn.
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Brian - Just a mild mannered kid/adult trying to figure out the way.
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