a blog by Brian
Thursday Picks coming out pretty cold this week, I do apologize, this blog should have been up a few hours ago. Do not panic, I knew that before blogging. Our first game does not start until 10:35 tonight.
***This segment consists of three picks each week, each pick will be for an event happening at the tail end of the week and they will also be from three different sports. I will picking against real Vegas betting lines, lines provided by www.vegasinsider.com. MMA lines vary, depending on the event.
I'm starting small, somewhere down the line if this segment works out, we can expand and do more engaging shit. For now, here are the picks***
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers
Thursday October 12th, 2017. Tip off at 10:35 pm.
Sacramento Kings +6.5 -10
Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 -10
Yes I know we are still in the NBA preseason. You need not remind me.
Considering what else is out there in Vegas for sports over the weekend, this is one of the better lines. The Clippers, are down a few key guys going into the game. Austin Rivers (glute), Sindarius Thornwell (shoulder), Sam Dekker (oblique), and Patrick Beverly (knee) will not be dressing tonight, while Danilo Gallinari is listed as doubtful. I'm not saying Austin Rivers and Sam Dekker are two vital pieces of this Clippers puzzle, but they will get significant time this season. Rivers is the coaches son, and Dekker has been a promising young player since he came into league out of Wisconsin. Like I said, I don't factor those guys as positive or even difference makers on this Clippers squad. Gallinari and Beverly have to be for this team to succeed in the regular season. Assuming Gallinari does not play since this is the preseason, that is two of the five best players on this squad sitting in street clothes. Yet, they are the favorite.
The Kings, have a relatively healthy team with the exception of lottery pick, De'Aaron Fox, who is listed as questionable. Good and bad, the good aspect of this is extended playing time for Frank Mason. Mason has played great this preseason, he is actively making a case for himself to be in the Kings rotation. Justin Jackson played well in their loss to Portland on Monday. 3-6, from 3.
According to Kings propaganda, they should be using a good portion of starters and key bench players in this game. The Kings are most likely giving substantial minutes to their rookies like Justin Jackson, and other young players like Willie Cauley Stein (He Sucks though). So let's get down to it.
I expect a heavy starter rotation from the Kings, and a heavy bench rotation from the Clippers. Without some key players new to the system, I figure the Clippers will struggle with sub-par talent on the court. I don't love the Kings rotation either, especially Willie Cauley Stein such an awful offensive game, but they will have more talent on the court for longer periods of time.
Take the dog Kings.
New York Yankees at Houston Astros
Friday October 13th, 2017. First pitch at 8:08 pm.
New York Yankees +160
Houston Astros - 180
Over/Under: 8.5 -20
This is another hard MLB line. The spread was 1.5 across the board, which is boring but so was the money line.
Just like last week though, the lefty pitching comes into play in a very large way. Dallas Keuchel (LHP) will be starting for the Astros, for the Yankees it will most likely be one of these two: Luis Severino, Sonny Gray. Both RHP, facing a righty dominant batting order in the Astros. Also, playing in a park with a that's left field is a mere 315 ft from the plate and 19 ft tall. 19 ft for an outfield wall is fairly high, but paired with a 315 foot distance, it becomes nearly nothing. A great piece of evidence for this claim is the opening game in the ALDS, Astros v. Red Sox. The Astros beat the shit out of Chris Sale (LHP) with their right handed batters going yard three times in five innings off of the pitcher with 300 regular season strikeouts.
In summary, I do not expect a huge day out of the Astros lineup, but Jose Altuve does scare me. On the other side of the diamond, there is the match-up of Dallas Keuchel (LHP) against the Yankees lefty dominant lineup. When you dive a bit deeper, you'll find this.
Keuchel Career Stats against New York Yankees
The Yankees have had nearly zero success against Keuchel, and paired with the five lefties in the Yankees batting order does not look.
Take the Astros, it is the safe bet. The Astros should keep their bats going and win with a slim margin.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Sunday October 15th, 2017. Kickoff at 1:00 pm.
Detroit Lions +5 -10
New Orleans Saints -5 -10
This pick is a gift from the gods. I don't give a fuck about New Orleans at home. New Orleans will lose this game. The Lions have had a representative defense for five weeks of the NFL season. Their run defense is ranked 7th and faced some tough running backs/rushing teams (Carolina, Minnesota, Atlanta). Almost always, is the New Orleans passing offense behind Drew Brees is stellar. This year, it is not. They should become more successful as the season goes, and it might start with this game since the weakness of this Lions defense is their secondary.
Lions at +5 against the Saints was by and large the best line for the NFL this week. While the Lions have had trouble on the offensive side of the ball, the Saints have had similar struggles yet on the defensive side of the ball. Stafford is going to lit up the sky, inside a dome, like the motha fuckin bat symbol.
Lions at +5 baby, lets make some fawkin money.
Quickly before we get out of here, (I understand this was a long one), I just couldn't let you guys leave without knowing of possibly one of the best lines you will see the rest of the 2017 calendar year.
If you're not involved in the MMA world, none of these people or words will mean much of anything to you. But, please pay attention. On November 4th, the UFC will hosted its PPV event UFC 217. Forget any backstory, any undercard, co-main, forget all that shit. Look at the main event. There is a man known by the name of George St. Pierre. He was during his prime/reign considered one of the greatest mixed martial artists of all time. St. Pierre retired in 2013, and is now making his comeback. Important fact: St. Pierre fought at 170 lbs. (welterweight) and dominated for years with nine consecutive title defenses.
He is slotted to fight a man named Michael Bisping at UFC 217. More important facts: Bisping holds the most career UFC wins, he joined the UFC in 2006, and is now the UFCs Middleweight champion. Middle weight has a weight limit of 185 lbs. Middleweight for a long time has been a hotbed for UFC talent, IOW: Middleweight has been consistently one of the harder divisions within the UFC. Bisping is much taller than St. Pierre, 6'1 to 5'10 respectively. Bisping also naturally weighs much more than St. Pierre. Bisping walks around everyday at over 200 lbs, while his counterpart is walking around normally in the ball park of 180-190. St. Pierre's best aspect of his game, wrestling. Bisping might be the hardest guy in the UFC to take down and keep on the ground. Bisping and St. Pierre are both MMA veterans, so the experience is a wash, unless you consider Bisping to be more akin to fight knowledge due to the fact that he has been fighting the whole time that St. Pierre has been on hiatus.
Now that I set the stage, now to blow your minds.
Michael Bisping +1115
George St. Pierre -135
Consider what I just laid out for you. I really think, possible injuries aside, Michael Bisping is going to ride off into the sunset defeating one of the greatest Welterweights of all time. If you need money, put $10 on this fight. Putting $10 down, would win you $111.50. If we lose, we lose but at these numbers it would be fucking dumb as fucking fuck not to put some small amount on it, right now. Lines change, especially the closer to the event it becomes. I guarantee these numbers won't be as lopsided by the time the fight begins.
Again, if you are really looking for good lines or just want some easy money, this is about as easy as it gets man. I'm gonna bet a lot of money on this fight, I might even go to fucking Vegas tomorrow to put some cash down.
I am not joking at all, this could be the bet of the decade.
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