Chris Hogan to the Patriots

Earlier the Patriots signed restricted free agent wide receiver Chris Hogan, formerly or the Buffalo Bills, to an offer sheet. The Buffalo Bills around 3 today declined to match the offer made by the Patriots. 

Which makes Chris Hogan the newest Patriot.

The deal was worth 3 years $7.5M and up to $12M in bonuses. The reported first year cap hit for Hogan is $5.5M. The Bills currently stand at $500k over the cap. The Bills would have to maneuver a lot of different contracts to claim a guy who had 70 catches over the past two seasons.

Not worth it for the Bills, also considering he is the prototype NE wide receiver. 

Hogans impact on the team could go either fast or slow. While Hogan is an outstanding technician with his footwork and route running, he had the second highest drop percentage in the NFL, right below Mohammad Sanu. Who also happened to be another Patriot target in Free Agency. The drops are concerning, considering that we just cut Brandon Lafell who was not the player the Patriots got two seasons ago, missing the first 6 games of last season then promptly shitting his pants in the games he did play.

Some people out on the web believe that the Hogan signing is a foreshadowing of Danny Amendolas departure. I disagree with that notion. Amendola is a definite slot guy. That is where he works best and that is where he gets open. Edelmen can be put in almost any spot on the field and get open. Most likley those are your two top receivers, who both are around 5'11. Edelmen is 200 lbs and Amendola is at 190 lbs. Chris Hogan is 6'1 and 210. He is a much bigger receiver. He is such a good route runner that he can be put in most positions at receiver and get open.

Also the cap numbers do not look like they match up. Amendolas cap number is right around $6.8M this upcoming season and $7.8M the following season. People are speculating that since Hogans first year number is at $5.5M that the Patriots would get rid of Amendola and use Hogan to replace him. That will not happen. If the Patriots get rid of Amendola it won't be this season it will be next. 

Lafells cap hit was $3.8M for the upcoming season. And if you look at the other departures in the receiving core, then you can see Scott Chandler had a cap hit of $3M and Brian Tyms had a cap hit of $600k. Add all that together and it makes up for the Hogan cap hit and even provides a little bit more space for the Patriots. The only reason the cap hit is so high for Hogan in year one was because the Bills are in cap jail right now with their spending over the salary cap. By making this seasons cap hit high, they made it virtually impossible for the Bills to resign him. 

Hogans role is not to overtake Amendolas. It is to overtake Lafells role in the offense from 2 seasons ago. If Hogan can give that kind of production to the Patriots he should be a great fit in NE.    

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