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Thursday Picks.4

10/26/2017

 
a blog by Brian
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We are still in it, the best month of the sports calendar. All four major network sports are playing meaningful games. There is also the ever so slow approaching ghoul day, Halloween. If you are in Boston, or just some northern part of this country, you may not share the same glee for this time of year. What I say, to those shweems, is get some heroine from your doctor, apparently it is pretty easy to get around here, it might help you stop being such a shit person to be around. 
Let Us Go. Quick Start off the Line. 

Los Angeles Clippers +2.5 - 104

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Portland Trailblazers -2.5 -106

Thursday October 26th, 2017. Tip off at 10:05 PM EST.
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Such a favorable line, I had to go for it. I don't expect much, if anything, from the Clippers this season. The West is stacked so, like every year for the past however many, a team like the Clippers should either squeak in as an 8 seed or fall to the bottom of the pack. Losing Chris Paul is my entire thought process behind it. Patrick Beverley, whom the Clippers got for Chris Paul, is a great defender but lacks the offensive part of the game which Paul had. 

They are 3-0, but I can definitely say that beating the Lakers was nothing short of expected. The Clippers have a decent roster, but Portland still has Damian Lilliard and CJ McCollum. Definitely rolling with favorites here.

I'm taking Portland -2.5.

*Odds from www.bookmaker.eu


Antonio Carlos Junior -430

v.

Jack Marshman +290

Saturday October 28th, 2017. Prelims start on FS2 at 8:00 PM EST.
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This Saturday shall mark the return of MMA legend, Lyoto Machida. The UFC shall travel to Sao Paulo, Brazil, where the home crowd will roar behind Machida as he takes on the powerful Derek Brunson. This UFC Fight Night is another overlooked card with some exciting match ups. 

Antonio Carlos Junior, is an Ultimate Fighter winner. He won the reality series tournament at Heavyweight. ACJ has fought at middleweight since making a switch from the 265 lb limit to 205 lbs and ultimately losing to Patrick Cummings. His opponent on this card, Jack Marshman is a, somewhat (27), young talented boxer. 

Marshman is 2-1 in the UFC (ACJ 5-2-1). Born in Wales, the fighter has extremely heavy hands. In his UFC debut, Marshman defeated Magnus Cedenblad. Cedenblad was a red hot middleweight, who going into the fight had won 12 of his last 13 fights. 10 finishes in those 12 wins, very impressive. Marshman connected with a right to the body and a left to the head, in first round which sent Cedenblad skating. Cedenblad and his huge frame, managed to recover and scramble into a double leg, then eventually converted it into a take-down. The two stayed on the floor for the remainder of the round, and Marshman took an absolute beating. Marshman would then come back and light Cedenblad up with combinations and hooks for the TKO victory.

Marshman can take a beating. His second fight against Thiago Santos, put the line underneath that statement. Yet, his problem is grappling. Which, if he is as bad as I think, will make for a frustrating night in Sao Paulo. I figure, if Cedenblad (who hasn't fought since the Marshman loss) could take him down with bouncy balls in his head, then Antonio Carlos Junior should be able to out wrestle and eventually submit Marshman. ACJ has a black belt in BJJ under Helder Medeiros. He also has six submission victories.

When in doubt, go with the grappler. 

Taking Antonio Carlos Junior -430. I just realized, I thought the entire time I was writing this that ACJ was the dog here. That would have been sweet but of course no. It's too late to change now, so fuck it, I'll take an easy win.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 +105

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Detroit Lions +3 -125

Sunday October 29th, 2017. Kickoff at 8:30 PM EST.
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Sunday Night, it goes down. The Steelers at Detroit, should be an odd match up. The Lions are fresh off a bye week they desperately needed. They sit at 3-3, losing two straight. The last game the Lions suited up for was an embarrassment for the sport of Football. The team allowed the Saints, of all the teams, to score three defensive touchdowns. 

The good, for the Lions, is their offensive running game against the Steelers rush defense. The Steelers are ranked in the bottom 6 of teams in the NFL against the run. Some bad news though, the Lions conversely, rank in the bottom 6 for rushing yard per game. Ameer Abdullah is a nice shifty, speed back, while their number two, Theo Riddick is one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. Riddick has had a fairly bad season through six games, in terms of rushing. 18 carries for 39 yards. But, like I said, he is generally not known as a good at the traditional aspects of the position. I wouldn't think that Jim Bob Cooter will stick with the running game. He's only got one guy whose good taking the ball out of the backfield, and I think they'll be behind from the 1st quarter on. 

The bad, for the Lions, or the good for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has the NFL's best pass defense through seven weeks of play. They also have the second most sacks (tied with Carolina). Which is very bad for the Lions. The Lions, like most modern NFL teams, can only move the ball through the air. That becomes very hard when you host the NFL's best pass defense, while yourself has fourth worst offensive line (t-4th sacks allowed). 

The Steelers should be able to run the ball and control the clock offensively. While on the other side of the ball, the defense should get to Matt Stafford multiple times. 

The best part of all this? bookmaker.eu is essentially giving us money with the +105. 

Taking the Steelers. Take em all day. 

*odds from www.bookmaker.eu


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